Welcome to our blog - The 7 stars blog | Just another WordPress site

Another new year brings another new media forecast.   

This year will certainly bring a host of unique events right into our own backyard, including the Diamond Jubilee, the European Football Championships and the Olympic games.  Such events will surely spark consumer interest, and – because of the forward planning required for advertisers to take advantage of such events – it means that despite the climate of economic uncertainty, many advertisers are approaching 2012 with a level of certainty and confidence.

After a difficult autumn, Q1 is looking relatively buoyant so far, with both the TV and Outdoor industries suggesting modest growth of 1 to 2%. Undoubtedly the early Easter is helping and  we believe recent mixed news from the retail sector will help to maintain this strong level of advertising activity.

We’re predicting that the second quarter will see real growth in the region of 4-5%. The big events mentioned above will attract a broad range of advertisers – and not just those that are sponsoring the various occasions.

The good news for advertisers is that more revenue will in most cases be matched by  more eyeballs. EURO 2012, which will appear on our TV sets in June, followed by the Olympics in July, will bring in bigger ad audiences, especially if the national teams perform well.  So while the Outdoor and Press media owners are anticipating strong revenue growth during the Olympics, the increased audience will actually mean that the cost per thousands will be down year on year.  There is better media value around for smart advertisers.

As to what will happen later on in 2012,  the economic climate is still very challenging and we think advertising activity next autumn will stumble, and wipe out  the gains made across the first half of the year, with revenues during the critical fourth quarter actually dropping by around 3%.

So, in conclusion, we predict that revenues across 2012  will struggle to match 2011 as a whole. However, it’s almost certain that there will be big monthly variances, and for the canny advertiser, 2012 could offer the best media value since the crisis years of 2008 and 2009.

The Leveson Inquiry has given us all a lot to think about during the last few weeks.  The public inquiry into the culture, practices and ethics of the British press was sparked by the News International phone hacking scandal, but its remit stretches much further,  into the relationship of the press with the public, police and politicians.

Last week’s highlights alone included the Express and Five proprietor Richard Desmond making a guest appearance.  Typically controversial, Desmond played down criticism of the handling of the Madeline McCann story by his portfolio of newspapers and at one point claimed, “Ethical? I don’t quite know what the word means…” which in itself explains quite a lot.  This week we can look forward to Trinity Mirror’s Sly Bailey and also to Ian Hislop’s first appearance.  

The major participants though in the overall inquiry will be News International, the Metropolitan Police, the other major newspaper groups (Northern and Shell, Guardian News and Media, Associated Newspapers , Trinity Mirror & Telegraph Media Group), and the National Union of Journalists. Plus some 51 victims who have been named by the inquiry, including high profile public figures such as Hugh Grant, Anne Diamond and Jeremy Clarkson.

Apart from providing the media industry with endless gossip and anecdotes, the inquiry has already exposed some  serious errors of judgment and management within the newspaper industry.  Witness reports including Anne Diamond ‘s  account of personally writing to tabloid editors begging them not to send photographers to her baby’s funeral – to no avail – attracted headlines of their own.

Many journalists have been quick to defend their paymasters – citing the British Press’s role in bringing to justice the Stephen Lawrence murderers, for example, and the exposure of MPs’ expense claims.  Even The Guardian, the newspaper widely credited with exposing so much of the phone hacking  story, this week ran a story in defense of the British Tabloid press.

We are still in phase 1 of the inquiry – and a report is due to be published in July.  What’s Hot anticipates that several newspaper groups will be named as having illegally hacked phones and computers, and that there will be a new regulatory framework restricting journalists from invading privacy of the public as well as the famous.

The press market is already suffering declining circulations, and ad revenue (particularly from the retail sector) is down.  The move from paper to digital in newspapers is an expensive one for the industry, and not without its teething problems.  New regulation and possibly a new privacy law is the last thing the newspaper industry needs right now – and yet in so many ways it is justly deserved.

Cast your minds back to August, where we took a look at the News of the World scandal. Back then, we promised you an update on what the Sunday market looks like after the death of the paper, and at What’s Hot, we always keep our promises.

This is largely a sad tale of going, going – but not quite gone. The market continues to decline as it becomes apparent that by December 2011 nearly 50% of the NOTW’s former readers have been lost from the Sunday newspaper market entirely.  Evidence of changing consumer habits for some 1.5Million people.

According to the ABCs – independently measured figures on media performance – July 2011 showed circulation increases across the board, except for the continued decline at The Observer and News International sister paper the Sunday Times, both down 1% period-on-period. The biggest winners were The Daily Star on Sunday, The People , the Sunday Mirror, Sunday Express and the Mail on Sunday who collectively added 1,865,242 copies to their  circulation in July 2011. This trend then seemed  to continue with further increases for The Sunday Mirror, People, Daily Star on Sunday and the Sunday Express in August’s ABC results.

Six months on and the Sunday Mirror, People, Daily Star on Sunday and the Sunday Express have emerged the triumphant winners, with an average 56.99% increase YoY compared to declines felt elsewhere in the Sunday market. The Daily Star on Sunday in particular has benefited, having maintained circulation at over double the number pre NOTW’s withdrawal from the market. Despite this all have seen their circulations slipping back, collectively losing 542,247 sales since the July gains.

Those who had been braver in their choices and switched to the mid-market Mail On Sunday began to fall away in August as the reader offers and promotions started to dry up. This decline has largely continued since then, with the Mail now below its pre-NOTW closure circulation and having dipped below the magic 2million mark it had surpassed in July. Despite this, it remains the biggest player in the Sunday market.

It’s clear that large numbers of the NOTW’s readers have withdrawn completely from the Sunday market, and fluctuating circulations certainly indicate that those who remain are perhaps not fully satisfied with the interim solutions. As initial public outrage over the NOTW’s unethical practices dies down, the concept of a Sunday Sun becomes more tangible. With the Sun still dominating circulations during the week (2,530,843) it seems a matter of when not if News International will move to snap up the readers they lost when the NOTW shut up shop. As the Leveson inquiry continues, we will have to wait and see if a new title emerges.

In case you missed it, Google has announced a significant, new and somewhat controversial update to its results pages, entitled ‘Search, plus your World’ (SPYW). This update effectively pours social results into your searches, which Google is deeming to be more useful.  Fair enough.  But it’s not just any social results, nope, Google is only factoring in your Google+ social graph, effectively demoting Facebook and Twitter and leaving arguably the more active and relevant social networks out.  Twitter et al have reacted angrily, as one might expect.

Once upon a time, it was Google versus Microsoft, Yahoo, AOL and yes even Ask, but forget the battle for search… this is the war for the web – and it involves Google and arch rival Facebook.  No more is Google just about simplifying the web and ‘organising the world’s information’. You see, Google, all-conquering search king, desperately wants to win in social too, whilst Facebook, sitting on the global social media throne, also wants to manage search intention from its users.  In effect, each wants to control our web journeys, supplying users with an ever increasing number of tools and apps to prevent us from leaving their confines.

So what does this recent move from Google mean for businesses that depend on their Google rankings for traffic and sales… and indeed reputation? Should brands seriously consider Google+ as part of their integrated search and social strategy? The answer it would appear is yes… just like brands should map out all other networks and touchpoints, and understand what value and place each has, so they should with Google+, especially if the business relies on search.  It is clear that brands cannot have search without social if they are to compete for our attention in these modern times, and SPYW reinforces this. 

With SPYW, much depends on how individuals use Gmail or Google+…the biggest effect will be on those that are logged in.  Personalised results based on historic searches and ‘semantics’ are the default when users are logged into their Google account, so it will be harder to determine a brand’s pure search rankings, traffic etc as they will be mixed in with various Google+ social signals, the latter taking ranking preference.

The biggest problem is results don’t, in many cases, seem to be wholly relevant to the search query. Since Facebook and Twitter results aren’t aggregated into public searches either, it puts an even bigger emphasis on creating a brand page on Google+ and being an active member. Certainly a controversial way to speed up adoption.

This update highlights, yet again, the importance of creating shareable content. If brands create content that’s good enough for people to want to share across their Google Circles, it has more chance of appearing in both organic and social results.  As ever, it’s crucial to start with understanding customers and to provide remarkable and relevant content for them… on an ongoing basis.  Integrate primary keywords into Google+ posts to increase their relevance in searches, but of course this must be done in a natural, non-spammy manner to avoid Google’s suspicious eyes. In short, brands must be relevant, well-found, and well-liked (or at least, well-shared) by influencers.