Another new year brings another new media forecast.
This year will certainly bring a host of unique events right into our own backyard, including the Diamond Jubilee, the European Football Championships and the Olympic games. Such events will surely spark consumer interest, and – because of the forward planning required for advertisers to take advantage of such events – it means that despite the climate of economic uncertainty, many advertisers are approaching 2012 with a level of certainty and confidence.
After a difficult autumn, Q1 is looking relatively buoyant so far, with both the TV and Outdoor industries suggesting modest growth of 1 to 2%. Undoubtedly the early Easter is helping and we believe recent mixed news from the retail sector will help to maintain this strong level of advertising activity.
We’re predicting that the second quarter will see real growth in the region of 4-5%. The big events mentioned above will attract a broad range of advertisers – and not just those that are sponsoring the various occasions.
The good news for advertisers is that more revenue will in most cases be matched by more eyeballs. EURO 2012, which will appear on our TV sets in June, followed by the Olympics in July, will bring in bigger ad audiences, especially if the national teams perform well. So while the Outdoor and Press media owners are anticipating strong revenue growth during the Olympics, the increased audience will actually mean that the cost per thousands will be down year on year. There is better media value around for smart advertisers.
As to what will happen later on in 2012, the economic climate is still very challenging and we think advertising activity next autumn will stumble, and wipe out the gains made across the first half of the year, with revenues during the critical fourth quarter actually dropping by around 3%.
So, in conclusion, we predict that revenues across 2012 will struggle to match 2011 as a whole. However, it’s almost certain that there will be big monthly variances, and for the canny advertiser, 2012 could offer the best media value since the crisis years of 2008 and 2009.