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The Olympics are just 170 days away, and will be upon us before we know it. Whilst the majority of Londoners are bubbling with excitement, contradictory to 2010 predictions, the media world appears to have held back.

There are 11.5m expected spectators, 8m of whom will be in London, bringing with them a predicted £1 billion of consumer spending – so there is a huge potential market out there.  The fact that 10% of these people will be from overseas may be a turn off for some advertisers, but to others their buck will be just as important as any Brit’s.

Looking back to this time last year, the Olympics was expected to be accessible only to the main sponsors – smaller advertisers either wouldn’t get close, or would be left fighting for leftover scraps of opportunity to avoid missing out. Out-of-home media is still going to be the best value broadcast medium; however, it seems that the vast majority of outdoor opportunities remain available, including London Spectaculars and Vicinity sites.

Initially, it was down to marketers to create clever ways around the Olympic advertising restrictions to get their clients close to the games. Taxis, QR codes, the possible weekend Metro, train wraps – all smart ways to get a piece of the action. Whilst the copy restrictions still apply, accessing the Olympic environment now seems far easier than expected. From January this year, unsold vicinity space is available to buy for non-sponsors and new locations have been added to the late-opening London Underground to satisfy perceived demand – though there are some very tenuous links to the prime areas.

The outdoor market is not the only channel left open to advertisers. Press, radio and even digital spaces are all ripe with opportunities. As the initial panic clouds clear, it has become apparent that this exclusive and invite-only space is actually available to anyone who wants to pay for it.

So, whether you wrap your brand around the four sides of Canary Wharf for £3m or geo-target free WiFi channels across the country – there are still some gold opportunities out there.

2011 was a mixed year for BskyB. The fallout from hack-gate and Sky’s failed takeover marred what otherwise could have been an excellent year for the satellite broadcaster.

However, any hopes for an easier 2012 have already been scuppered.  Netflix’s long anticipated UK launch has ruffled some feathers but not just among their obvious online rivals. An On-Demand war has kicked off, with Netflix, LoveFilm and Sky all competing for paying subscribers.

The growth of online paid content indicates a more fundamental problem for Sky. Their primary delivery platform is their satellite dish. However, this rise in HD content and ever increasing bandwidth requirements makes satellite technology look increasingly outdated. Moreover, capacity limits will block Sky from fully moving into the HD on-demand arena.

The new game is super-fast broadband, currently only available through fibre-optic cabling, which Virgin and BT both offer. To join the game, Sky has two options: either to lay its own cables (an expensive gamble); or to accept BT’s huge costs (unrestrained by any Ofcom ruling, which would ensure open competition in the way that standard broadband is).

However, hidden behind Netflix’s launch, there is a clue to how Sky might evolve to meet these new threats. Sky has announced plans for an Internet movie-streaming service. This will include a pay-as-you-go option, something Sky has never before entertained.

This new offering, set to launch during the first half of this year, will allow customers to pay for downloadable movies and other content without signing a contract. This will either be on a pay-monthly, or pay-as-you-go basis.

The Sky Go platform is not entirely new, as it has been a big success on the Xbox 360. The real change is that, for the first time, Sky is now offering a service to non-Sky subscribers. This can be seen as a direct response to the competition they face from Lovefilm and Netflix.

Critically, this is a dramatic shift from their current reliance on their traditional dish towards an integrated and platform-neutral offering across connected TVs, consoles, tablets and mobiles. What’s Hot predicts hopes for a Sky Go app launch to rival Virgin Media’s TiVo box.

What is certain is that the increased  competition in the premium on-demand war can only be good for consumers.

Another new year brings another new media forecast.   

This year will certainly bring a host of unique events right into our own backyard, including the Diamond Jubilee, the European Football Championships and the Olympic games.  Such events will surely spark consumer interest, and – because of the forward planning required for advertisers to take advantage of such events – it means that despite the climate of economic uncertainty, many advertisers are approaching 2012 with a level of certainty and confidence.

After a difficult autumn, Q1 is looking relatively buoyant so far, with both the TV and Outdoor industries suggesting modest growth of 1 to 2%. Undoubtedly the early Easter is helping and  we believe recent mixed news from the retail sector will help to maintain this strong level of advertising activity.

We’re predicting that the second quarter will see real growth in the region of 4-5%. The big events mentioned above will attract a broad range of advertisers – and not just those that are sponsoring the various occasions.

The good news for advertisers is that more revenue will in most cases be matched by  more eyeballs. EURO 2012, which will appear on our TV sets in June, followed by the Olympics in July, will bring in bigger ad audiences, especially if the national teams perform well.  So while the Outdoor and Press media owners are anticipating strong revenue growth during the Olympics, the increased audience will actually mean that the cost per thousands will be down year on year.  There is better media value around for smart advertisers.

As to what will happen later on in 2012,  the economic climate is still very challenging and we think advertising activity next autumn will stumble, and wipe out  the gains made across the first half of the year, with revenues during the critical fourth quarter actually dropping by around 3%.

So, in conclusion, we predict that revenues across 2012  will struggle to match 2011 as a whole. However, it’s almost certain that there will be big monthly variances, and for the canny advertiser, 2012 could offer the best media value since the crisis years of 2008 and 2009.

The Leveson Inquiry has given us all a lot to think about during the last few weeks.  The public inquiry into the culture, practices and ethics of the British press was sparked by the News International phone hacking scandal, but its remit stretches much further,  into the relationship of the press with the public, police and politicians.

Last week’s highlights alone included the Express and Five proprietor Richard Desmond making a guest appearance.  Typically controversial, Desmond played down criticism of the handling of the Madeline McCann story by his portfolio of newspapers and at one point claimed, “Ethical? I don’t quite know what the word means…” which in itself explains quite a lot.  This week we can look forward to Trinity Mirror’s Sly Bailey and also to Ian Hislop’s first appearance.  

The major participants though in the overall inquiry will be News International, the Metropolitan Police, the other major newspaper groups (Northern and Shell, Guardian News and Media, Associated Newspapers , Trinity Mirror & Telegraph Media Group), and the National Union of Journalists. Plus some 51 victims who have been named by the inquiry, including high profile public figures such as Hugh Grant, Anne Diamond and Jeremy Clarkson.

Apart from providing the media industry with endless gossip and anecdotes, the inquiry has already exposed some  serious errors of judgment and management within the newspaper industry.  Witness reports including Anne Diamond ‘s  account of personally writing to tabloid editors begging them not to send photographers to her baby’s funeral – to no avail – attracted headlines of their own.

Many journalists have been quick to defend their paymasters – citing the British Press’s role in bringing to justice the Stephen Lawrence murderers, for example, and the exposure of MPs’ expense claims.  Even The Guardian, the newspaper widely credited with exposing so much of the phone hacking  story, this week ran a story in defense of the British Tabloid press.

We are still in phase 1 of the inquiry – and a report is due to be published in July.  What’s Hot anticipates that several newspaper groups will be named as having illegally hacked phones and computers, and that there will be a new regulatory framework restricting journalists from invading privacy of the public as well as the famous.

The press market is already suffering declining circulations, and ad revenue (particularly from the retail sector) is down.  The move from paper to digital in newspapers is an expensive one for the industry, and not without its teething problems.  New regulation and possibly a new privacy law is the last thing the newspaper industry needs right now – and yet in so many ways it is justly deserved.

Cast your minds back to August, where we took a look at the News of the World scandal. Back then, we promised you an update on what the Sunday market looks like after the death of the paper, and at What’s Hot, we always keep our promises.

This is largely a sad tale of going, going – but not quite gone. The market continues to decline as it becomes apparent that by December 2011 nearly 50% of the NOTW’s former readers have been lost from the Sunday newspaper market entirely.  Evidence of changing consumer habits for some 1.5Million people.

According to the ABCs – independently measured figures on media performance – July 2011 showed circulation increases across the board, except for the continued decline at The Observer and News International sister paper the Sunday Times, both down 1% period-on-period. The biggest winners were The Daily Star on Sunday, The People , the Sunday Mirror, Sunday Express and the Mail on Sunday who collectively added 1,865,242 copies to their  circulation in July 2011. This trend then seemed  to continue with further increases for The Sunday Mirror, People, Daily Star on Sunday and the Sunday Express in August’s ABC results.

Six months on and the Sunday Mirror, People, Daily Star on Sunday and the Sunday Express have emerged the triumphant winners, with an average 56.99% increase YoY compared to declines felt elsewhere in the Sunday market. The Daily Star on Sunday in particular has benefited, having maintained circulation at over double the number pre NOTW’s withdrawal from the market. Despite this all have seen their circulations slipping back, collectively losing 542,247 sales since the July gains.

Those who had been braver in their choices and switched to the mid-market Mail On Sunday began to fall away in August as the reader offers and promotions started to dry up. This decline has largely continued since then, with the Mail now below its pre-NOTW closure circulation and having dipped below the magic 2million mark it had surpassed in July. Despite this, it remains the biggest player in the Sunday market.

It’s clear that large numbers of the NOTW’s readers have withdrawn completely from the Sunday market, and fluctuating circulations certainly indicate that those who remain are perhaps not fully satisfied with the interim solutions. As initial public outrage over the NOTW’s unethical practices dies down, the concept of a Sunday Sun becomes more tangible. With the Sun still dominating circulations during the week (2,530,843) it seems a matter of when not if News International will move to snap up the readers they lost when the NOTW shut up shop. As the Leveson inquiry continues, we will have to wait and see if a new title emerges.