By Rob McLaren, Insight
As any researcher will tell you, the contrast between claimed data (what a respondent tells you they think they will do) and actuals (what they actually did) offers a fascinating insight into the human mind. When times are tough, survey after survey, including our own the7stars QT, will typically suggest that consumers are tightening their purse-strings across as many categories as possible. Actualised data sources, such as open banking data, often reveal a murkier picture: we may think we’re saving money, but our bank balance says otherwise.
None of this is to say claimed data isn’t important. In fact, it makes it even more critical: a consumer’s spend intentions provide an excellent summation of how they are feeling about the economy. If a consumer feels positive, they may be more likely to reward themselves with extra luxuries, and their favourite brands will profit. Negative feelings, on the other hand, suggest they are more conservatively spreading their cash. They may be spending the same, but they don’t feel their money is going as far.
The same mentality, it seems, is true of marketers. This is what makes the IPA’s quarterly Bellwether Report, published jointly with S&P Global Marketing Intelligence, so critical. In Q4 2025, marketers said their budgets had flatlined, after growth in the two preceding quarters and in stark contrast to the usual rises in the final quarter. This was despite another respected source, the Advertising Association/Warc Expenditure Report, forecasting 7.3% growth for the UK ad sector for 2025’s golden quarter. Much like consumers’ spend intentions, both of these sources can be true in their own ways.
While the headline stat from the IPA report was of 0.0% growth in marketing spend, other areas saw significant movements. PR and Events spend was expected to grow, by 3.5% and 1.4% respectively, while Market Research (-4.0%) and Direct Marketing (-4.2%) declined.
On a channel-by-channel basis, only ‘Other Online’ was stated for growth (+13.2%). Marketers expected to pull back spend on both video and audio, though this was less pronounced than in the previous quarter. Out of Home saw the biggest drop, to -17.7%, as demand created by new Less Healthy Foods (LHF) restrictions will stretch competition within the Outdoor market.
As summarised by its authors, the forecast for 2026 is ‘one of the weakest preliminary outlooks in Bellwether survey history’. This reflects both global geopolitical tensions – with the presidency of Donald Trump continuing to lead to volatile markets – and the fears expressed by UK businesses over policy decisions in recent Budget announcements.
In a challenging economic climate, it is not just consumers who are anxiously checking their bank balances. Marketers, too, see worrying signs ahead, and most are pushing for their pennies to go ever further. This reinforces the need for targeted, data-driven media planning. In turbulent times, brands who continue to invest are often those who prosper later – even if the temptation is to pull the plug entirely. We’re all human, after all.
