Since the United States and Israel co-ordinated military strikes in Iran in February 2026, an already unsettled global environment has been defined by cycles of disruption and fragile stabilisation.
Recent weeks have seen clashes followed by pauses in hostilities, with the Strait of Hormuz tentatively open as diplomatic talks resume. Energy markets have cooled from their peak, but remain sensitive to further disruption. The result is not a return to normality, but the embedding of volatility into the global economy.
Yet, despite this backdrop, the UK outlook remains resilient. Economic projections continue to paint a moderately positive picture, with inflation trending down and the IMF recently upgrading its economic growth forecasts for the country. A similar projection is evident within the advertising industry, with the latest IPA Bellwether Report revealing UK marketing budgets are the highest they have been in two years.
To understand how this tension is playing out in real terms, the7stars has tracked consumer sentiment closely over recent months. The results suggest that, while Brits have been preoccupied with news of the Iran conflict, its impacts have been met with a degree of acceptance and adjustment.
British consumers are, unsurprisingly, feeling the weight of the situation. More than half (53%) report feeling frustrated by the conflict, while 41% say they feel angry. The geopolitical fallout is shaping perception too, with 45% saying they now view the United States more negatively. Much like during the Ukraine War and recent domestic economic turbulence, consumers are adjusting rather than retreating.
Where change is happening, it is selective, with holiday travel the most immediate casualty. Some three-quarters of Brits say they intend to avoid booking travel outside of Europe within the next six months, as airline disruption and flight cancellations abound. Meanwhile, closer to home, one-third say they are worried they will not be able to afford additional energy price increases should the conflict linger on.
Meanwhile, a ‘keep calm and carry on’ mentality that has been so important to British identity over the past century persists. While 44% of consumers say they will cut back on non-essential spending in the short term, most are resorting to minor changes rather than drastic shifts in behaviour
Crucially, this environment is fostering a more pragmatic relationship between consumers and brands. A majority (58%) of Brits say they expect brands to have to increase prices in response to the Iran conflict, and most are accepting of this – if handled sensitively. For brands, this increases the importance of clear communications and transparent pricing. Following years of economic turbulence, consumers are extremely alert to inflation, shrinkflation and quality changes. Such changes, without clear explanation of why they need to occur, will not only be noticed but will reflect negatively on brands.
This dynamic elevates the importance of brand strength: those which prioritise customer service and demonstrate the benefits of their products should be protected from sudden shocks, even if finding new customers becomes harder in the current climate. Rather than dramatically re-evaluating brands, consumers are becoming more selective, prioritising value and reliability.
As the recent IPA Bellwether report showed, brand building advertising will hold outsized presence during these trying times. For even though the current climate is uncertain, Brits have demonstrated continued resilience throughout recent disruptions and will look to reward the brands that serve them well throughout this latest conflict. As Britain enters a transitionary phase with yet another change in Prime Minister, this resilience will again be put to the test. But if recent consumer behaviour is a guide, it is unlikely to break.
